NGX Market Snapshot – Thursday, June 26, 2025

The Nigerian equity market took a breather today, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) slipping by -0.39% to close at 121,257.69. This pullback comes amid a sharp -27.03% drop in turnover (N17.04B vs. N23.35B prior), even as volume edged up slightly to 862M shares. Market breadth was marginally negative, with 36 advancers versus 39 decliners (breadth: 0.92x), hinting at pockets of profit-taking and increased selectivity. Notably, retailers continued to account for the lion’s share of trades, but institutional players dominated by value and volume, with a significant tilt toward the banking sector. Sector rotation, volatile movers, and momentum divergences paint a nuanced landscape for both short-term traders and long-term investors.

Key Market Highlights

• ASI close: 121,257.69 | YTD return: 17.06%
• Top gainer: UNILEVER +10.00% (₦51.70)
• Top loser: SFSREIT -10.00% (₦249.25)
• Volume up in 63 stocks, down in 76
• Turnover: N17.04B (-27.03%) | Deals: 23,908
• Market breadth: 36 advancers / 39 decliners | Currency: Naira/USD flat

Significant Trends in Market Breadth

• Narrow Negative Breadth: Advancers to decliners at 0.92x underscores selective risk appetite and a split market.
• Volume Up, Value Down: Slight uptick in traded shares but with a sharp decline in turnover signals smaller average trade size — often a sign of retail-driven choppiness and possible waning institutional conviction.
• Momentum Scatter: Notable divergence in momentum signals, with top gainers posting high RSI readings (e.g., NEIMETH RSI 83.3), flagging overbought names.

Top Gainers & Losers

Unusual Volume Stocks

• ELLAHLAKES: 113.5M shares, +1086% vs 90D avg – massive liquidity & short-term volatility, price -3.95% (profit-taking in a previously hot name?).
• CAVERTON: 64.9M shares, +1132% volume jump, price flat. A reload point?
• FTNCOCOA: 40.9M shares, +608% massive volume on mild (-0.54%) pullback, dangerous for late buyers – RSI at 79.4 and strongly overbought.
• UNIVINSURE: 29.8M shares, +121% volume, price up 8.33% – possible momentum/accumulation play.
• JAPAULGOLD: 61.6M shares, +422% volume, price +2.93%. Watch for continuation/rotation.

Momentum Inspection: YTD Top Gainers, Losers & Technicals

• NEIMETH +115.14% YTD | RSI: 83.4 — Extremely overbought (RSI>80), on the day’s leader board, unusual volume.
• ELLAHLAKES +125.91% YTD | RSI: 87.7 — Overbought, huge volume, pullback (-3.95%) suggests rotation/profit-taking.
• CHAMPION +162.47% YTD | RSI: 85.2 — Most extended momentum; however, posted -8.34% today – stalling, but still technically strong.
• INTBREW/BUACEMENT/FTNCOCOA All post triple-digit YTD gains with overheated RSI and several technical overextensions.
• Notable Overlap: NEIMETH and ELLAHLAKES and FTNCOCOA are present in both top daily gainers and top YTD tables, and among highest RSI, flagging extremely high risk of volatility.

• GREENWETF RSI 28.6 — Only significant oversold reading (+ a breakdown below 15D MA).
• OANDO, ABCTRANS, BUAFOODS — all witnessed sharp negative momentum today, with 15D moving average break and above average volatility.
• CHAMPION — A rare case where YTD big gainer is seeing negative daily move, despite high RSI.

Bullish / Bearish Momentum Table: Key Overlaps

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREWERY: Despite an RSI of 85.2 (overbought) and positive MACD crossover, the stock is down -8.34% today after a stunning +162.47% YTD gain. Indicates possible exhaustion — momentum bulls beware.
• THOMASWY: High RSI (79.2), big negative swing (-10%) – a classic case of a "drained" runner, and a possible reversal.
• GREENWETF: Down -9.98%, with RSI 28.6, an extremely low reading, suggests potential short-term bounce for oversold hunters.
• DAARCOMM: Price +3.39%, but -6.15% YTD and RSI only mid-40s – hunting for direction.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Stock Watch

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value share (highest on the day), with sustained RSI lift and technical uptrend. Signal for portfolio managers: continued accumulation in top-tier banks, even amid market choppiness.
• ACCESSCORP: Next in institutional volume, but price -1.95% on the day, and -6.0% YTD — shows selectivity in banking buys.
• ELLAHLAKES: Almost 10% of institutional trade volume despite profit taking, indicates active hands.

Market Activity & Trade Summary Insights

• Retail: 22,589 trades (61.9%) but just 33.1% of volume and 14.0% of value—a clear high-churn, low-impact footprint.
• Institutional: 2,839 trades (38.1%), a full 66.9% of shares and 86.0% of value. They’re voting with their pockets—particularly in ZENITHBANK and ACCESSCORP.
• ZENITHBANK was the #1 most traded by institutions (18.5% value share) and a top traded stock by retailers, too. This kind of dual focus, with technical uptrend (RSI 68.8, MACD rising), is a bullish validation signal.
• ELLAHLAKES and OANDO also appeared in both institutional and retail top 5 by trade count—often a sign of high speculation and short-term volatility around news or flows.
• DANGSUGAR, #5 in retail trade count, saw its heaviest action with large volume and a technical breakout, boosted also by institutional activity (2.54% institutional trade value share).
• Pattern: Where institutional and retail focus overlaps, price moves tend to be sharper and more volatile, but the direction is more likely to sustain (e.g., ZENITHBANK, ELLAHLAKES).

Trader Suggestions & Key Takeaways

• Momentum Stocks Overheated: NEIMETH, FTNCOCOA, ELLAHLAKES, and CHAMPION — all with RSI > 80 — present high risk for latecomers. Tighten stops or consider partial profit-taking.
• Institutions Accumulating Banks: Remain attentive to continued institutional buying in ZENITHBANK and related financials—these could weather near-term choppiness best.
• Contrarian Watch: Names like GREENWETF (RSI <30), BUAFOODS, and AIICO have entered oversold/ breakdown territory—possible bounce setups if overall market stabilizes.
• Dividend + Low Beta: FIDELITYBK and NEIMETH show appeal for income, but risk remains on anything with run-up RSI/YTD.
• Volume Surges = Caution: Unusual volume stocks (ELLAHLAKES, FTNCOCOA, etc.) call for nimble trading and discipline.
• Low Turnover a Red Flag: The sharp turnover drop vs yesterday may foreshadow supply/demand imbalance or signal lack of conviction at current levels.
• Monitor Bearish Crossovers: OANDO, ABCTRANS showing breakdowns below 15DMA are at risk for further downside, unless swift reversals emerge.

Hidden/Advanced Insights

• RSI/MACD/Volume Confluence: Many names with overheated RSI also flagged as "unusual volume” and top YTD gainers; history suggests outsized price reversals often follow such confluence—raise defensive postures.
• Sector Concentration: Institutions focusing heavily on top-tier banks (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP). Defensive rotating to selected financials.
• Yield-Momentum Disconnect: No high-yield defensive plays currently lining up with strong momentum—income seekers may want to hold fire.

Visual Sparkline References (15D vs 50D MA Crossover)

• Most gainers, especially NEIMETH, ELLAHLAKES, FTNCOCOA, display upward crossovers (15DMA above 50DMA) — indicating sustained upward pressure, albeit with risk.
• Several losers (BUAFOODS, OANDO) now showcase downward crossovers (15DMA below 50DMA) — signals to proceed with caution.

Summary: Outlook & Risk

• Upside momentum remains in select names but is getting crowded ("frothy”).
• Institutions are clustering in top financials while retailers chase momentum names, increasing reversal risk for the latter.
• Near-term caution advised for overbought stocks. Look for leadership stock reversals or a drop-off in institutional volume as early sign of a broader pullback.
• Defensive posture: Seek value in selectively oversold, dividend-yielding stocks if risk appetite wanes further.
• Watch turnover: If turnover remains weak, expect more positional squaring and heightened volatility around news/triggers.

For more detailed analysis, on InfoWARE Market Data Terminal <NSEPERF> <GO>
On InfoWARE Finance Mobile App (Android, iPhone & iPad, Windows Phone and Windows 8/10), "Top Gainers & Losers"